MAKE CHANGE POSSIBLE.

Bearish Drivers

· Robust Norwegian supply.
· Warmer temperatures pushing demand down.
· Flexibility to EU gas storage rules now allowing member states to fill to 90% between Oct/Dec rather than the previously agreed Nov.
· Trump Tariffs set to potentially reduce global gas demand if implemented.

Bullish Drivers

· Ongoing peace talks between Russia & Ukraine without meeting an agreement.
· Trade war incited by Trump’s Tariffs imposed globally causing market uncertainty.
· Low LNG send-out with only 2 confirmed for Apr 25.

Prompt gas prices experienced a significant rise towards the start of March, increasing by 10.5%, peaking on 11th March. This surge was attributed to lower wind power output and easing temperatures, which heightened demand for gas-fired power generation. ​That being said, despite the early spike, UK gas prices decreased by approximately 2% since the beginning of 2025, trading stably towards the end of the month by mid-April. ​This downward move was amid increased LNG; An influx of global LNG supplies and the achievement of gas storage targets.

The ongoing peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have introduced a complex dynamic to the volatility of gas and electricity wholesale markets. Historically, the conflict has led to significant disruptions in energy supplies, particularly affecting European markets heavily reliant on Russian exports. The recent U.S.-brokered limited ceasefire, aiming to protect energy infrastructure and ensure safe maritime operations in the Black Sea, has the potential to stabilising these markets. However, the situation remains precarious due to mutual accusations of ceasefire violations and continued geopolitical tensions.

Looking ahead to the remainder of April and May, the key market fundamental will likely be the ongoing trade war we now find ourselves in on the back of the recently announced global tariffs by the U.S. This has the potential to have a bearish impact on pricing with reduced global demand. That being said, while the 90 day hold is still in place we are likely to continue seeing market volatility until anything firm is in place.

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